• April 19, 2024

30 years ago, one of the largest cities in Latin America collapse before a seismic movement of 8.1 degrees on the Richter scale. And although its consequences are still visible, it is possible that this type of event will be repeated in the next 70 years.

Is it possible to predict an earthquake like that of September 19, 1985?

Due to its characteristics, the return period of this earthquake would be between 50 and 100 years, but "that does not mean that a similar earthquake will not happen before, because it can come from another place", warned the head of the National Seismological Service, Xyoli Pérez Campos .

To explain the return period, the expert referred to a toy inside a box, which is turned and turned with a crank to compress a spring and when uncovered, the figure comes out, for example a clown, for the energy that is released.

The plate of Coconuts that is trying to get under the plate of North America, approximately to six centimeters per year, then arrives a moment in which has accumulated so much effort that the plate of North America does not resist more, the material is broken, slide the plate and that's an earthquake, "he explained.

The person in charge of the UNAM dependent body adds that Being a constant movement, a certain effort will accumulate for several years .

Then the return period "is the time it will take for me to turn the crank and the clown to come out, and then I put it back in, turn the crank and approximately it will be a similar time each time it does", He expressed in an interview with Notimex.

So that, "approximately because we have similar times between an earthquake and another , and it depends on the area, we are talking about 30 years, 70 years, 100 years, but not only from the area, but also from the characteristics of an earthquake ".

Given this, the organism it has the function of registering and "informing the parameters of location and magnitude of all the earthquakes that are registered in the territory both to the authorities and to the civilian population in a timely manner".

Although not always an alert is possible , and when it occurs, "we must take into account that if we have an alert, we do not really know how much time we have before the seismic waves arrive", says Pérez Campos.

This way it can happen more than a minute or even nothing of time after the alert to feel an earthquake, when "the epicenter is very close to us, then the waves would be arriving first before the alert ”.

Added to this, he explained that in Mexico "there are more seismic zones than others, the Mexican Pacific coast is the most seismically active zone. The area of ​​the Gulf of California would be the second and from there the frequency of earthquakes and magnitudes decreases towards the interior of the country. "

For what is necessary to continue working in the preparation of the population, "what we have to work now is on personal security", so that they are prepared to take the necessary actions to be carried out during an earthquake.

Since earthquakes can not be predicted, "what we can say is that we expect in a range of years that with some probability an earthquake will occur , but as well as putting the point in the year and place and magnitude, that if we can not, "he said.

Video Medicine: Mexico 7.1 Earthquake: 'Absolutely Horrific Images' | MSNBC (April 2024).